Economy in Brief

Inflation in Switzerland remains as a global envy. At 1.5% year-on-year and sequentially stable, or still moderating, the Swiss inflation rate continues to perform in its desired range as other advanced money center countries struggle to control their budgets, revive growth, and return to their pre-Covid inflation objectives.

Swiss growth remains moderate. The services sector underpins expansion while manufacturing in Switzerland occurs in the same global environment as for everyone else. That sector shows damped activity with a PMI reading indicating sluggish and contracting activity.

Swiss inflation trends reveal year-over-year inflation rates across CPI categories as higher in only 25% of them. Inflation rates over six months show more pressure with inflation accelerating in 75% of categories, but over three months conditions are stable with inflation acceleration in only 50% of categories balanced with deceleration.

That tempered behavior is not surprising because Swiss domestic ‘core’ inflation is even more tempered than its headline series. Swiss core inflation rises by 1.1% over 12 months and by less than 1% annualized over three months.

In this week's newsletter, we explore shifting trade patterns between China and the rest of the world. These shifts reflect changes stemming from the pandemic and, more importantly, from geopolitical pressures and supply chain dynamics. While China's export dependency on Western economies like the US and the EU has decreased, it remains substantial. Additionally, certain product categories, notably transportation equipment, have gained ground in China's export portfolio. In addition to this, we delve into China's rapid development in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, both domestically and internationally. This includes achieving high retail penetration domestically and experiencing rapid export growth abroad. However, concerns have been raised by several governments regarding overcapacity issues resulting from China's escalating EV exports, leading to discussions of possible retaliation via e.g. increased tariffs to address these concerns.

Expanding our scope, government concerns regarding overcapacity extend beyond EVs to other goods, such as steel products and cement, among others. Additionally, we examine China's trade relationships with its Asian neighbors, noting a diminished share of advanced Asian economies in China’s aggregate trade, while relationships with Southeast Asian nations and India have strengthened. Lastly, we delve into China's burgeoning bilateral trade ties with Vietnam, driven by deepening supply chain integration and Vietnam's reliance on China-sourced parts for its electronics exports. These developments underscore the intricate and evolving dynamics shaping China's trade landscape.

Shifts in China’s export composition In recent years, China's export landscape has undergone significant shifts, primarily influenced by the rearrangement of supply chain dynamics stemming from the pandemic and, more recently, heightened geopolitical factors. Chart 1 illustrates this transformation, depicting a decline in China's export share to Western economies like the US and the EU compared to pre-pandemic levels. Conversely, there has been an uptick in China's export share to Asian economies such as India and those in Southeast Asia. The relative significance of product categories within China's export mix has also undergone notable shifts. Specifically, China has witnessed a substantial increase in the export share of transportation equipment, plastics, rubbers, and basic metals. This surge can be attributed to an increase of exports of specific products, such as electric vehicles (EVs), a trend we will delve into further below.