Economy in Brief

German orders came up flat in February after falling by 5.5% in January. It's been a turbulent period for orders. The January drop came after an increase of 5.6% in December, so orders have been chopping around the last few months and are not really going anywhere. Foreign orders rose 0.8% in February after falling 0.5% in January and being flat in December. Domestic orders fell 1.2% in February after falling by 12.1% in January but that had followed a 13.9% increase in December. Once again, there is a lot of volatility and little trend.

The trend path for orders looking at 12-month, 6-month, and 3-month growth shows not much stirring. Total order orders fall 0.2% over 12 months; they rise at a 2.7% annual rate over six months and then fall at a 0.9% annual rate over three months.

Foreign orders rose 0.1% over 12 months; they were up 1.9% at an annual rate over six months and they rose by 1.4% at an annual rate over three months. Foreign orders are showing some sustainable growth over three months and six months although they have very little to show for it over 12 months. Domestic orders fall by 0.9% over 12 months; they gain at a 3.5% annual rate over six months and then fall at a 4.3% annually over three months. Domestic orders display the same kind of volatility that we see in the headline overall and not the tendency toward creeping growth that we see looking at foreign orders. Moreover, the domestic series updates with a 3-month growth rate that's negative which is not encouraging. Real sales data show a small increase in February of 0.2% for manufacturing after falling 1.0% in January and rising 0.8% in December. The sequential growth rates hint at some improvement but not much with a 3% decline over 12 months, a 0.4% decline at an annual rate over six months and then a swing to positive growth at 0.4% at an annual rate over three months; this is creeping and good news, but it's very moderate growth.

Industrial confidence measures for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain the four largest economies in the European Monetary Union, show a modest improvement from January to February in Germany and in France, unchanged conditions in Italy, compared to some slight slippage in Spain. Viewed sequentially, the industrial confidence data don't show much movement from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months for these countries; Germany and France get slightly weaker; Italy and Spain have even smaller moves although they also get slightly weaker. The rankings on the levels of these industrial confidence measures in February give us rankings that are below the 50% mark, putting them below their median for all four countries. The reading for Germany is the lowest with 5.9 percentile standings; the others have rankings between the 20th and 40th percentile on that timeline.

The data on orders in real sales on a ranking basis we find overall orders and domestic orders are moderate-to-weak with an overall order of ranking in the 53rd percentile compared to a domestic ranking at the 25th percentile and foreign orders have a firm 71.5 percentile standing. These calculations are based on the levels of orders. Then expressed in terms of growth rates, these three orders metrics have rankings between their 36th and 40th percentiles putting them below their median growth rate for the period. Real sector sales, for manufacturing sales for example with a 48-percentile standing based upon the level of sales, logs a 19-percentile standing based upon the ranking of its year-over-year growth rate.

The composite PMI readings for March show 19 readings by month or time segment. In March nine of those get worse month-to-month. Six jurisdictions are below 50 indicating overall economic contraction; those six are France, Russia, Hong Kong, Japan, Zambia, and Egypt. This compares to only two below 50 in February (France and Hong Kong) and four in January (France, Italy, Brazil, and Singapore). These lists demonstrate it is not like these countries are mired in contraction; countries seem to come and go from the category of contraction except for France that contracts in all three months as well as over three months, six months and 12 months, based on average values. Hong Kong contracts in March and in February as well as over three months on average and on average over 12 months, but not over six months. Egypt contracts over three months, six months, and 12 months as well.

However, the above are the exceptions From January 2012, the average percentile standing for the 19 countries in their respective data queues as of March 2025 is a reading of 46.1%. But the median reading among all these standings is at 50% which marks the overall median. These factors suggest that the overall health of the global economy based on the composite readings here is near its median.

Sequentially, nine reporters are weak over three months compared to six months, then twelve are weaker over six months compared to 12-months, and three them are worse over 12 months compared to their averages of 12-months before.

Ten reporters have rank values above 50%, which places them above their respective individual medians.

The strongest rankings are 83.3% for Nigeria and 78.6% for Egypt. The weakest readings are 4.8% for Japan and 9.5% for Hong Kong. Among the U.S., EMU, Germany, The strongest rankings are 83.3% for Nigeria and 78.6% for Egypt. The weakest readings are 4.8% for Japan and 9.5% for Hong Kong. Among the United States, EMU, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, the average standing is at 48.6% and the median is 54.8%. Only France, Italy and the U.K. have standings below their respective 50% marks on composite readings for this grouping of advanced economies- of course, we just saw Japan was much weaker.