- Light truck purchases improve, but auto sales decline.
- Total domestic vehicle sales increase; imports are little changed.
- Imports' market share slips.
USA| Nov 01 2024U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rise Modestly in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 01 2024U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Eases in October
- Index down sharply from March high.
- Production & inventories indexes lead decline, orders & employment rise.
- Prices reading improves.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- September construction spending +0.1% m/m (+4.6% y/y); August and July revised up.
- Residential private construction +0.2% m/m, led by a 0.4% rebound in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.1% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction +0.5% m/m, reflecting m/m rises in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
Europe| Nov 01 2024EMU Unemployment Is Still at a Low Level and Easing
Unemployment remains low in the euro area in September. It is tied for its all-time record low since the union was formed. So, the ranking of the rate is in its 0.3-percentile that says it has been this low or lower only 0.3% of the time. That is much lower than for any EMU member in the table. The lowest ranking (highest standing) in the table is Italy at 1.6% followed by Ireland at 7.4%. The reason the EMU rate ranks so much lower is that it is the confluence of all these low unemployment rates that is unusual making the EMU-wide rate even lower.
Trends The sequential trends from 12-month to 6-months to 3-months shows five of 12 countries in the table with falling rates of unemployment. Only four show unemployment falling on balance over six months with one having unemployment unchanged. Five have unemployment unchanged over three months as well. This shows the trend for unemployment rate to fall is still in place and that may seem surprising given the weakness in some of the recent economic data from Europe. Of course, one reason for this is also that Europe’s large economy Germany has its unemployment rate rising over 12 months and six months and it is on a different trend that the EMU area- that seems unsustainable.
Over the most recent three months, we see the unemployment rate falls in six countries month-to-month in August compared to only three in September. September has five countries with the unemployment rate rising that compares to only three in August.
The labor market trends may be running out of gas as far as lowing the unemployment rate is concerned. Still, the ECB is still cutting rates to provide economic support. But the labor trend does not show decay sequentially. The annualized monthly drops are all in the same ballpark for 12-month, 6-month, and 3-month changes. But the situation with Germany needs to be resolved since it will be hard for the euro area to perform well if Germany can’t.
Global| Oct 31 2024Charts of the Week: Data, Policy and Politics
Some unexpected resilience in the US economy and particularly in the labour market has continued to reinforce soft landing narratives over the past few days. At the broader global level, weaker-than-expected inflation data have also been reinforcing the view that most major central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy in the period ahead. In our charts this week we illustrate how this soft landing narrative continues to shape sentiment in financial markets (see charts 1 and 2). But we illustrate too, that notwithstanding US resilience, latest forward looking business surveys suggest that global growth is losing momentum. Domestic policy and politics, however, have also been important in recent days with the new UK labour government’s first budget dominating the headlines (chart 4). Some uncertainty has additionally crept into Japan’s political scene and generated some financial market consequences (chart 5). Finally, and looking ahead to next week, US politics has continued to dominate the global headlines and may well be a key driver of economic and financial market outcomes in the period immediately ahead (chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 31 2024U.S. Core PCE Price Gain Picks Up, but Real Spending Posts Solid Increase in September
- Monthly gain in core prices is highest in six months.
- Improvement in real spending is concentrated in goods.
- Disposable income firms as wages maintain strength.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Oct 31 2024Rise of U.S. Employment Cost Index Slows Further in Q3
- The pace of growth in employment costs slowed to multiyear lows in Q3.
- While still elevated relative to pre-pandemic readings, the trend in employment costs is clearly down.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Initial claims down 12,000 in latest week.
- Total unemployment insurance beneficiaries decrease 26,000 in October 19 week.
- Insured unemployment rate revised down, maintaining 1.2% amount even during hurricanes.
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