Economy in Brief

EMU inflation overview By category, inflation is not accelerating over shortening periods. The year-over-year chart shows inflation in the EMU is lower and less prone to rise over 12 months than other major monetary centers. But, break it down… to 12-months vs. 6-months…to 6-months vs. 12-months…to 3-months vs. 6-months and EMU inflation goes from accelerating over 12 months (compared to 12-months ago) to accelerating in 38% of categories over 6 months (compared to their 12-month pace) to accelerating in 53.8% of categories over 3 months (compared to their pace over 6-months). The inflation worm is beginning to turn within the EMU and within the one-year time horizon. And we know that what is next is more growth, more price pressure, and more military spending in the EMU because of change in upcoming fiscal policy. So, it is becoming clear that the ECB is not going to get back to its 2% target unless or until it is ready to raise rates again. And NO ONE is saying that yet.

Core trends in EMU- Core inflation shows prices better-behaved than headline inflation and across the four largest EMU nations. Inflation is excessive on core inflation year-on-year in Germany and Spain; over 6 months, in Germany and over 3 months, in both Germany and France. Inflation is accelerating on the core measure for German inflation over 6 months and for French and Spanish inflation over 3 months.

Headline inflation- By comparisons, headline inflation is flaring more but it is less stable, more mercurial, so these trends may not prove to be lasting. Still, headline inflation accelerates over 3 months compared to 6 months in three of four countries and is excessive (above 2%) in three of four of the largest EMU nations. Over 6 months, two of them are showing acceleration and excess inflation at the same time.

Commodity level trends across EMU- By commodity category or economic grouping, inflation is prone to accelerate as we note in the first paragraph. Contrarily, the monthly data show decelerating pressures while the sequential 12-, 6-, and 3-month data show a tendency to more acceleration. On monthly data, inflation accelerates in 12 categories in December, in 6 categories in January and in 4 categories in February.

WOW! What a chart!! Enter the Post-War age of the rediscovery of geopolitics Press reports this morning are all over the new ZEW release that shows that macroeconomic expectations for Germany have jumped sharply to a level of 51.6 in March from 26.0 in February. This, of course, is being heralded as a result of the great German turnaround and Germany discovering that it really needs to provide for its own security rather than to spend its money paying down its debt and letting the U.S. provide its protective defense umbrella. A real epiphany… After years of turning down U.S. entreaties to be more careful with its security that started with Barack Obama and went on to Donald Trump, Germany refused to spend more money in NATO and brushed off Trump's concerns about being linked to Russia through a pipeline. It basically did just about whatever it could to cause Russia to think that the Germans no longer had any interest in NATO which played a part and fueling Russian boldness and its attack of Ukraine. Russia thought Germany would leave NATO to preserve its economic ties to Russia! Wrong. But a war’s start often is based on poor assumptions or hidden factors. Had Germany wanted to spend the least it could on the military, it should have listened to Barack and to Trump. However, it didn't, and so now we have this huge military buildup that is really pushing macroeconomic expectations ahead in Germany. While we can argue about military spending and whether it's good or bad, right now, it's providing the stimulus that Germany and Europe need to jumpstart their economy out of this long period of weakness that stemmed from COVID, its aftermath, and from of the Ukraine invasion by Russia.

Dramatic shifts However, the part of this new survey that is not getting as much attention is that U.S. macroeconomic expectations that were +1.3 in February have dropped to -48.7 in March, a massive drop in one month; the ranking or queue standing of the U.S. macro-expectations in March is at a 4.4 percentile mark which means that since the early 1990s that has been weaker than this only 4% of the time. In contrast, the jump in German expectations have boosted German expectations up to the 75th percentile of their ranking over the same period. The economic situation in March, which is less malleable because it's tethered to what's happening ‘on the ground’ says the euro area is roughly unchanged at a ratio of -45.2. Germany’s situation is also roughly unchanged, slightly improved, at a level of -87.6; but the U.S. current index drops sharply to +6.7 in March from +42.6 in February, down to a 37-percentile standing. I frankly wonder if it's possible for current conditions - actual current conditions - apart from expectations, to deteriorate that sharply in one month but that's the result we have here to report.

Stunning developments On dating back to early 1992, U.S. current conditions have fallen (experienced a deterioration) month-to-month more than they have in March 2025 on only four other occasions and those were generally in the middle of either COVID or a sharp stock market sell off or some clear precipitating event. In this case, I suppose we would say it's the fear of Donald Trump, his geopolitical stance, his government overhaul, and tariffs are driving these changes. Macroeconomic expectations in the United States have deteriorated month-to-month more than this only once, and in Germany macroeconomic expectations have improved more sharply than they have in March only five other occasions in the past. This report from ZEW is a watershed report; it's fair to say we've never seen anything like it in the past because not only are these statistically highly unusual moves, but it is unprecedented to see the U.S. and the German macroeconomic expectations move so sharply in one month in completely different directions. This result is simply stunning.

The nail in coffin of deflation In the wake of these findings, it's not surprising to see that inflation expectations have jumped in the euro area from -18.6 in February to +6 in March. In Germany, they've jumped from -17.9 in February to +7.9 in March while in the U.S. they have jumped from 35.3 to 52.3. The queue standings now for inflation expectations are in the 38.3 percentile for the euro area (since the early 1990s), in the 39.5 percentile for Germany, and in the 71.5 percentile for the U.S. Quite apparently the period where we will worry about deflation and the zero bound, and all of those things is over, and we are back to worrying about inflation...hello darkness my old friend...